Dr Plokta (drplokta) wrote,
Dr Plokta
drplokta

What Next?

I want your predictions for where we'll be in ten years' time, June 2026, by which time there should have been at least two general elections (unless things have gone really badly wrong). If you think the UK will have split up, then references to the UK should be taken to mean the successor state with the highest population.

Will the UK have left the EU?

No, the government will have ignored the referendum result
2(6.9%)
No, there will have been a second referendum with a different result
6(20.7%)
No, the government will still be waiting until the time is right to submit an Article 50 declaration
3(10.3%)
No, but the government will have submitted an Article 50 declaration and we'll be on the way out
1(3.4%)
Yes, and we'll be in the EEA
3(10.3%)
Yes, and we'll have some new kind of halfway-house EU membership, which will be unique to the UK
7(24.1%)
Yes, and we'll have some new kind of halfway house EU membership in which we'll be joined by at least one other country
3(10.3%)
Yes, and we'll be completely out
3(10.3%)
There won't be an EU
0(0.0%)
Something else which I will explain in a comment
1(3.4%)

The UK's relationship with the EU will include

Free movement of people (possibly with some minor restrictions, e.g. on benefit claims)
18(15.9%)
Full access to the single market
18(15.9%)
A significant financial contribution to the EU budget
21(18.6%)
Acceptance of EU rules and regulations
20(17.7%)
Membership of the Common Fisheries Policy
17(15.0%)
Membership of the Common Agricultural Policy
17(15.0%)
Something else which I will explain in a comment
2(1.8%)

The UK will include:

Scotland
7(8.9%)
Northern Ireland
17(21.5%)
Wales
27(34.2%)
London
28(35.4%)

The UK government will be

Conservative
2(6.9%)
Labour
8(27.6%)
Liberal Democrat
0(0.0%)
UKIP
2(6.9%)
Green
1(3.4%)
Some new far-left party
0(0.0%)
Some new moderate-left party
3(10.3%)
Some new centrist party
5(17.2%)
Some new moderate-right party
1(3.4%)
Some new far-right party
0(0.0%)
A coalition
5(17.2%)
A government of national unity
1(3.4%)
Something else which I will explain in a comment
1(3.4%)

The worst Prime Minister of the past century will be:

Neville Chamberlain (Conservative)
3(10.0%)
Anthony Eden (Conservative)
1(3.3%)
Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
4(13.3%)
David Cameron (Conservative)
12(40.0%)
Whoever is about be appointed by the Conservative party
8(26.7%)
Someone else who I will explain in a comment
2(6.7%)
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